Jörg Simon Wicker Senior Lecturer | School of Computer Science | The University of Auckland
Senior Lecturer | School of Computer Science | The University of Auckland

Development of a Seismic Loss Prediction Model for Residential Buildings using Machine Learning – Christchurch, New Zealand

Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Jörg Wicker, Liam Wotherspoon: Development of a Seismic Loss Prediction Model for Residential Buildings using Machine Learning – Christchurch, New Zealand. In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Forthcoming, (in review).

Abstract

This paper presents a new framework for the seismic loss prediction of residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. It employs data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning (ML) trained on insurance claims data from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) collected following the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The seismic loss prediction obtained from the ML model is shown to outperform the output from existing risk analysis tools for New Zealand for each of the main earthquakes of the CES. In addition to the prediction capabilities, the ML model delivered useful insights into the most important features contributing to losses during the CES. ML correctly highlighted that liquefaction significantly influenced buildings losses for the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The results are consistent with observations, engineering knowledge, and previous studies, confirming the potential of data science and ML in the analysis of insurance claims data and the development of seismic loss prediction models using empirical loss data.

BibTeX (Download)

@article{nokey,
title = {Development of a Seismic Loss Prediction Model for Residential Buildings using Machine Learning \textendash Christchurch, New Zealand},
author = {Samuel Roeslin and Quincy Ma and Pavan Chigullapally and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Liam Wotherspoon},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-2022-227},
year  = {2022},
date = {2022-09-01},
urldate = {2022-09-01},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
abstract = {This paper presents a new framework for the seismic loss prediction of residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. It employs data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning (ML) trained on insurance claims data from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) collected following the 2010\textendash2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The seismic loss prediction obtained from the ML model is shown to outperform the output from existing risk analysis tools for New Zealand for each of the main earthquakes of the CES. In addition to the prediction capabilities, the ML model delivered useful insights into the most important features contributing to losses during the CES. ML correctly highlighted that liquefaction significantly influenced buildings losses for the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The results are consistent with observations, engineering knowledge, and previous studies, confirming the potential of data science and ML in the analysis of insurance claims data and the development of seismic loss prediction models using empirical loss data.},
note = {in review},
keywords = {computational sustainability, earthquakes, machine learning},
pubstate = {forthcoming},
tppubtype = {article}
}