Feature Engineering for a Seismic Loss Prediction Model using Machine Learning, Christchurch Experience

Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, and Pavan Chigullapally, Jörg Wicker, Liam Wotherspoon: Feature Engineering for a Seismic Loss Prediction Model using Machine Learning, Christchurch Experience. In: 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Forthcoming.

Abstract

The city of Christchurch, New Zealand experienced four major earthquakes (MW > 5.9) and multiple aftershocks between 4 September 2010 and 23 December 2011. This series of earthquakes, commonly known as the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), induced over NZ$40 billion in total economic losses. Liquefaction alone led to building damage in 51,000 of the 140,000 residential buildings, with around 15,000 houses left unpractical to repair. Widespread damage to residential buildings highlighted the need for improved seismic prediction tools and to better understand factors influencing damage. Fortunately, due to New Zealand unique insurance setting, up to 80% of the losses were insured. Over the entire CES, insurers received more than 650,000 claims. This research project employs multi-disciplinary empirical data gathered during and prior to the CES to develop a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings in Christchurch using machine learning. The intent is to develop a procedure for developing insights from post-earthquake data that is subjected to continuous updating, to enable identification of critical parameters affecting losses, and to apply such a model to establish priority building stock for risk mitigation measures. The following paper describes the complex data preparation process required for the application of machine learning techniques. The paper covers the production of a merged dataset with information from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) claim database, building characteristics from RiskScape, seismic demand interpolated from GeoNet strong motion records, liquefaction occurrence from the New Zealand Geotechnical Database (NZGD) and soil conditions from Land Resource Information Systems (LRIS).

    BibTeX (Download)

    @inproceedings{roeslin2020feature,
    title = {	Feature Engineering for a Seismic Loss Prediction Model using Machine Learning, Christchurch Experience},
    author = {Samuel Roeslin and Quincy Ma and and Pavan Chigullapally and J\"{o}rg Wicker and Liam Wotherspoon},
    year  = {2020},
    date = {2020-09-17},
    booktitle = {17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering},
    abstract = {The city of Christchurch, New Zealand experienced four major earthquakes (MW > 5.9) and multiple aftershocks between 4 September 2010 and 23 December 2011. This series of earthquakes, commonly known as the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), induced over NZ$40 billion in total economic losses. Liquefaction alone led to building damage in 51,000 of the 140,000 residential buildings, with around 15,000 houses left unpractical to repair. Widespread damage to residential buildings highlighted the need for improved seismic prediction tools and to better understand factors influencing damage. Fortunately, due to New Zealand unique insurance setting, up to 80% of the losses were insured. Over the entire CES, insurers received more than 650,000 claims. This research project employs multi-disciplinary empirical data gathered during and prior to the CES to develop a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings in Christchurch using machine learning. The intent is to develop a procedure for developing insights from post-earthquake data that is subjected to continuous updating, to enable identification of critical parameters affecting losses, and to apply such a model to establish priority building stock for risk mitigation measures. The following paper describes the complex data preparation process required for the application of machine learning techniques. The paper covers the production of a merged dataset with information from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) claim database, building characteristics from RiskScape, seismic demand interpolated from GeoNet strong motion records, liquefaction occurrence from the New Zealand Geotechnical Database (NZGD) and soil conditions from Land Resource Information Systems (LRIS).},
    keywords = {computational sustainability, data mining, earthquakes, machine learning},
    pubstate = {forthcoming},
    tppubtype = {inproceedings}
    }